NR’s Glen Oscar picks, snubs, and locks
Another year has passed and another fine selection of films and performances has been recognized by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The 88th annual Academy Awards air tonight and will crown those who the Academy believes are worthy of an Oscar.
It’s an odd year, though, with so many surprises and such an eclectic group of Best Picture nominees. It’s one of the most unpredictable years in recent memory. Last year, the Best Picture award was going to go to either Birdman or Boyhood and in the acting categories, three out of the four winners were locks: Julianne Moore, Patricia Arquette and J.K. Simmons. Despite a few exceptions, these awards are completely up in the air. Last year, out of the 19 categories for which I made predictions, I correctly predicted the outcome of 14. I feel like that number will be slightly lower this year. I’m warning you in advance.
But before I give my picks as to whom I want to win, whom I think should win and whom I predict will win, I’d like to talk about the subs and locks.
SNUBS
Ex Machina: This is the best movie of 2015. It has amazing dialogue that covers life itself, society, robotics, sex, etc without being pretentious or overly simplistic. The story is intriguing and suspenseful right through. It contains one of, if not, the best performance of the year from Oscar Isaac as well as other great ones, the special effects are flawless, it has a pleasantly creepy mood, it makes hard science fiction accessible and contains some of the best quotes of the year. The Academy should be ashamed.
Carol: It’s a beautiful love story with two of the best performances of the year from Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara with brilliant and subtle directing from Todd Haynes. It’s a rather familiar ‘forbidden love’ story, but it’s handled expertly and I’ve rarely cared more about people in a love story than in this movie. It’s sort of expected that a sci-fi like Ex Machina got snubbed, but it’s surprising that this period piece about social justice missed out, especially with its Golden Globe nomination.
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina: Isaac gives one of, if not the, best performance of the year. He’s incredibly natural and charismatic as a sort of mad scientist who actually doesn’t like speaking in overly technical language, but when he does it’s utterly convincing. He’s an incredibly charming person who you want as your friend while also creepy and intimidating, often in the same scene. You can feel the tension fill the room just with one glance from Isaac toward his young protégé played by Domhnall Gleeson. He’s a very complex character and Isaac nails every part of the role.
Emily Blunt, Sicario: Sicario is a very good, if not slightly underwhelming film. But, Blunt’s performance stands out as one of the movie’s high points. She’s a resilient and morally strong character who has to compose herself in one of the most dangerous places on Earth. She balances the strength of the character with her fear perfectly. You feel so much for this character who’s trying so hard not to fall apart under the stress of the situation. Her eyes say so much in this roll.
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs: This is one of the more puzzling omissions as Sorkin actually won the award for best screenplay at the Golden Globes. As usual, Sorkin makes the dialogue in Steve Jobs smart, engrossing, witty, energetic and just downright entertaining. The characters are interesting and complicated and, somehow, you actually root for Jobs even though he’s a real jerk. What’s most impressive is that Sorkin breaks down the movie into three contained segments in very contained settings revolving around a product release, yet the film still maintains its flow and allure.
Ryan Coogler, Creed: How can you breathe new life into such a tired franchise like Rocky? Somehow, Coogler does just that. He makes you care about this story and its characters once again and directs the actors to Oscar worthy performances. His filming style is appropriately gritty yet sentimental when it has to be, though the latter quality isn’t forced but emerges naturally and subtley. And the one-take boxing round is a wildly impressive and kinetic sequence, the type of shot rarely found in a sports movie. Coogler didn’t just make a great Rocky film, he made a great film.
Other snubs include Creed, The Walk, Johnny Depp for Black Mass, Steve Carrell for The Big Short, Todd Haynes for directing Carol and the score for The Revenant.
LOCKS
Leonardo DiCaprio: Best Actor
The planets have finally aligned for DiCaprio to receive his first Academy Award. This is his year. His work in The Revenant isn’t even his best, but it’s still a great performance in a relatively weak year for the Best Actor category. Bryan Cranston gives a great performance, but it’s a tad hammy. Matt Damon’s incredibly natural and charismatic in The Martian, but I don’t think the performance is strong enough or the role demanding enough to earn the top prize. Michael Fassbender gives an incredibly nuanced and convincing performance as Steve Jobs, but it lacks that showy quality that the Academy tends to award. And Eddie Redmayne is great as usual but he won the award last year and I don’t think his performance in The Danish Girl is so utterly remarkable to warrant a second win in as many years. Combine the strength of the field with DiCaprio’s body of work, his performance and the fact that he’s kind of due and you get an Oscar for Leo.
Mad Max: Fury Road: Visual Effects
Ever since this movie premiered way back in May, audiences and critics alike can’t stop talking about the effects in this movie, mostly because the majority of them are practical effects produced in camera without the use of CGI. Even though I thought the film was a bit overrated, I can’t help but respect the work and detail that went into creating these effects. They look amazing and make you question just how they pulled it off. I think the Academy respects this breath of fresh air and throwback to the old days of film making and will award the film for it.
SIDE NOTE #1
I’ve included 19 out of the 24 categories as I didn’t see enough movies in the omitted categories: Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, and Five Action Short Film
SIDE NOTE #2
Want to Win – A nominee who I want to see win based on the person’s personality, past work, because ‘they’re due’, emotional investment etc, etc, etc
Should Win – A nominee who I believe delivered the best quality among the nominees in a particular category
Will Win – A nominee who I believe will be given the award
SIDE NOTE #3
I’ve only included nominated movies and people in the ‘Want to Win’ and ‘Should Win’ categories, so I’m saying right here that, although Ex Machina and Oscar Isaac weren’t nominated, they deserve to win.
Finally, here are my picks:
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Want to Win: Mark Ruffalo
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Want to Win: Rachel McAdams
Should Win: Rachel McAdams
Will Win: Kate Winslet
WRITING: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room
Want to Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol
Will Win: The Big Short
WRITING: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton
Want to Win: Ex Machina; Spotlight (tie)
Should Win: Ex Machina; Spotlight (tie)
Will Win: Spotlight
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant
Want to Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
Want to Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Will Win: The Revenant
COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
Want to Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
FILM EDITING
Nominees: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Want to Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Will Win: The Revenant
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, The Revenant
Want to Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Want to Win: Carol
Should Win: The Hateful Eight
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey; “Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction; “Simple Song #3,” Youth; “Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground; “Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre
Want to Win: “Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
Should Win: “Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
Will Win: “Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
SOUND EDITING
Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Want to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
SOUND MIXING
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Want to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Want to Win: Ex Machina
Should Win: Ex Machina
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
SHORT FILM: ANIMATED
Nominees: Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay’s Super Team, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, World of Tomorow
Want to Win: We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Should Win: We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Will Win: Bear Story
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Want to Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Want to Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Brie Larson
DIRECTING
Nominees: Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight; Adam McKay, The Big Short; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Want to Win: Alejandro G Inarritu
Should Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Will Win: George Miller
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Want to Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Spotlight
Will Win: The Revenant
